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By John Spence, MarketWatch
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Exchange-traded funds tracking real estate stocks have been among the market’s best performers since the March 2009 market low, but the potential for more upside is on shaky ground.
ETFs that focus on residential U.S. real estate have rebounded sharply. The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund
/quotes/comstock/13*!itb/quotes/nls/itb
(ITB
13.52,
+0.31,
+2.35%)
and SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
/quotes/comstock/13*!xhb/quotes/nls/xhb
(XHB
16.57,
+0.31,
+1.91%)
are up 100.2% and 92.7%, respectively, for the 12 months through March 4. A broad yardstick for U.S. large-cap stocks, SPDR S&P 500 ETF
/quotes/comstock/13*!spy/quotes/nls/spy
(SPY
114.25,
+1.61,
+1.43%)
, gained 63.7%, according to FactSet Research.
Berkshire Hathaway and the magic of compounding
MarketWatch’s Sam Mamudi examines the long-term returns that Berkshire Hathway has secured for investors under Warren Buffett. He compares the results to mutual funds for The News Hub’s Kelsey Hubbard.
Meanwhile, Vanguard REIT ETF
/quotes/comstock/13*!vnq/quotes/nls/vnq
(VNQ
46.42,
+1.23,
+2.72%)
has more than doubled from its March 2009 low. The portfolio is comprised of real estate investment trusts, which own and operate commercial properties such as offices and apartment buildings.
The snapback rally in real estate came after the sector avoided the financial ruin that investors had priced into these stocks during the credit crisis. Yet now there are worries the market has overshot and that projections of a strong recovery are too optimistic.
If a double-dip recession strikes, real estate stocks could be among the hardest-hit. Indeed, they fell further than the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index
/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x
(SPX
1,139,
+15.72,
+1.40%)
during the market’s crash. Therefore, investors need to keep a clear eye on the sector’s risks and its sensitivity to the economic recovery.
Read about investments for the bull market’s second year.
Commercial real estate
Before the credit meltdown, many investors were drawn to REITs’ solid performance over the previous decade, plus their dividends and diversification qualities. The stocks give investors a way to participate in commercial real estate and hedge against inflation.
However, the sector provided little shelter when the stock market plunged. Income-oriented investors were socked with a double whammy when many REITs scaled back dividends to conserve cash, or paid them out in stock. To qualify for federal tax breaks, REITs are required to pay out 90% of their taxable income to shareholders through dividends.
The total market capitalization of the U.S. REIT industry was about $272 billion at the end of February. The business owns about $500 billion worth of commercial real estate assets, or between 10% and 15% of institutionally owned commercial real estate, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. There are 14 REITs in the S&P 500.
/quotes/comstock/13*!vnq/quotes/nls/vnq
VNQ
46.42,
+1.23,
+2.72%
The Vanguard REIT ETF is the largest ETF tracking the sector in terms of assets. Its top five stock holdings are Simon Property Group Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!spg/quotes/nls/spg
(SPG
79.43,
+1.82,
+2.35%)
, Public Storage Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!psa/quotes/nls/psa
(PSA
87.42,
+1.58,
+1.84%)
, Vornado Realty Trust
/quotes/comstock/13*!vno/quotes/nls/vno
(VNO
69.26,
+2.13,
+3.17%)
, Equity Residential Properties Trust
/quotes/comstock/13*!eqr/quotes/nls/eqr
(EQR
37.27,
+1.19,
+3.30%)
and Boston Properties Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!bxp/quotes/nls/bxp
(BXP
71.14,
+1.97,
+2.85%)
.
Other large commercial real estate ETFs include iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
/quotes/comstock/13*!iyr/quotes/nls/iyr
(IYR
47.44,
+1.06,
+2.29%)
, iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index Fund
/quotes/comstock/13*!icf/quotes/nls/icf
(ICF
54.36,
+1.48,
+2.80%)
and SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF
/quotes/comstock/13*!rwr/quotes/nls/rwr
(RWR
50.94,
+1.35,
+2.72%)
. Meanwhile, the SPDR Dow Jones International Real Estate ETF
/quotes/comstock/13*!rwx/quotes/nls/rwx
(RWX
35.27,
+0.71,
+2.05%)
, with more than $1 billion in assets, is a popular option for the global real estate market.
Despite the rally, REITs remain an unloved sector of the market and many economists are warning of a long, drawn-out crisis in commercial real estate.
REITs scrambled to deleverage their balance sheets when the credit crunch hit, and there are concerns about their ability to roll over debt in coming years. Fundamentally, the sector is facing declining rents, occupancies and property values. Add a weak economy, high unemployment and the specter of rising interest rates, and it’s no wonder the outlook is so bleak.
Still, there are some positive signs for the sector. Many REITs were able to tap the capital markets in 2009 by raising equity and debt. Meanwhile, the strongest companies may be among the deep-pocketed investors able to scoop up depressed properties and profit when the economy recovers.
M&A activity could also provide a lift to the stocks. For example, Simon Property and Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
/quotes/comstock/13*!bam/quotes/nls/bam
(BAM
24.43,
+0.32,
+1.33%)
have locked horns over bankrupt mall giant General Growth Properties Inc. Vornado is reportedly interested in General Growth as well.